Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Brightloss 1:2series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:2
孤孤独摇滚win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bright
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 4 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Irving · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
Irving · 3 games
Leshracoften banned
phoenix · 2 games
Lich
Undyne_ · 2 games
Snapfire
Undyne_ · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 2 games
Tusk
Undyne_ · 2 games
孤独摇滚
Beastmasteroften banned
strawberry · 4 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
strawberry · 4 games
Doomoften banned
strawberry · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
strawberry · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dstones · 1 game
Marsoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
Necrophos
Dstones · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1001 picks · 685 bans
Tiny
653 picks · 479 bans
Nature's Prophet
603 picks · 959 bans
Tusk
554 picks · 430 bans
Snapfire
526 picks · 358 bans
Death Prophet
517 picks · 1178 bans
Disruptor
517 picks · 374 bans
Clockwerk
499 picks · 370 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Team Bright
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Team Bright
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:33
Team Bright 64%孤独摇滚 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Bright — the game was taken by 孤独摇滚 in 39:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterIrving
Ember SpiritDstones
Necrophosphoenix
Dawnbreakerstrawberry
TuskUndyne_
Game 2prediction correct24:11
Team Bright 62%孤独摇滚 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 36:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshracphoenix
Nature's Prophetstrawberry
TidehunterIrving
InvokerDstones
UndyingUndyne_
Game 3prediction missed16:35
Team Bright 64%孤独摇滚 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Bright — the game was taken by 孤独摇滚 in 36:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawIrving
Queen of PainDstones
Storm Spiritphoenix
Legion Commanderstrawberry
PhoenixUndyne_
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bright · 72%
Series result孤独摇滚 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3