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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
iG Vitalityloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Holy Grailwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

iG Vitality

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sj · 10 games
60%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ukiyo · 10 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ash · 7 games
86%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Drink · 7 games
86%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
dolem · 6 games
67%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Sj · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Drink · 5 games
20%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
ukiyo · 5 games
40%

Holy Grail

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
33%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
omoxiloyi · 4 games
25%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
omoxiloyi · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
omoxiloyi · 3 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Tzy · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1002 picks · 685 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
654 picks · 478 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
604 picks · 959 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
554 picks · 430 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
526 picks · 358 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1177 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
515 picks · 374 bans
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
497 picks · 370 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% iG Vitality
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Holy Grail
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:26
iG Vitality 51%Holy Grail 49%
The model gave 51% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 32:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinukiyo
49% · 97 games50% · 85 games
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
Queen of Pain
Doom
Doomdolem
46% · 169 games51% · 307 games
Death ProphetTzy
Death Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierAsh
55% · 231 game52% · 288 games
Clockwerkomoxiloyi
Clockwerk
Monkey King
Monkey KingDrink
49% · 127 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSj
46% · 56 games
Game 2prediction missed25:6
iG Vitality 49%Holy Grail 51%
The model gave 51% on Holy Grail — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 22:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomdolem
44% · 122 games50% · 79 games
MagnusButterflyEffect
Magnus
Slark
Slarkukiyo
58% · 51 game48% · 134 games
TimbersawTzy
Timbersaw
Primal Beast
Primal BeastAsh
52% · 142 games50% · 365 games
Clockwerkomoxiloyi
Clockwerk
Disruptor
DisruptorDrink
58% · 116 games
Undying
UndyingSj
43% · 147 games
Game 3prediction correct26:34
iG Vitality 49%Holy Grail 51%
The model gave 51% on Holy Grail — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 37:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerukiyo
55% · 40 games44% · 142 games
Templar AssassinButterflyEffect
Templar Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightdolem
51% · 98 games51% · 220 games
DoomTzy
Doom
Primal Beast
Primal BeastAsh
58% · 95 games44% · 105 games
Jakiroomoxiloyi
Jakiro
Undying
UndyingSj
50% · 104 games
Disruptor
DisruptorDrink
55% · 130 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHoly Grail · 51%
Series resultHoly Grail 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3