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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1w Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
GH · 28 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 27 games
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
GH · 25 games
28%
Muerta
Muerta
rincyq · 25 games
56%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 23 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
rincyq · 22 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 22 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
No!ob · 19 games
37%

1w Team

Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 31 game
58%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 27 games
41%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 25 games
48%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 25 games
48%
Tiny
Tiny
swedenstrong · 18 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 17 games
76%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 17 games
53%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SSS · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
616 picks · 578 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
508 picks · 402 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 400 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
443 picks · 491 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
429 picks · 210 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
407 picks · 253 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
388 picks · 1035 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
383 picks · 875 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total59% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:8
Nigma Galaxy 56%1w Team 44%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 44:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone Druidrincyq
60% · 18 games53% · 63 games
Alchemistv1olent-
Alchemist
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo!ob
41% · 275 games50% · 287 games
TinySquad1x
Tiny
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
50% · 195 games46% · 197 games
Underlordмистер мораль
Underlord
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderDavai
63% · 4 games55% · 162 games
Rubickswedenstrong
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
50% · 288 games55% · 71 game
VenomancerRein
Venomancer
Game 2prediction correct25:13
Nigma Galaxy 54%1w Team 46%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 33:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone Druidrincyq
61% · 22 games52% · 181 game
Muertav1olent-
Muerta
Puck
PuckNo!ob
41% · 275 games43% · 194 games
Underlordмистер мораль
Underlord
Bristleback
BristlebackDavai
53% · 165 games50% · 170 games
Sand KingSquad1x
Sand King
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
51% · 269 games48% · 152 games
Rubickswedenstrong
Rubick
Oracle
OracleGH
59% · 31 game56% · 65 games
Treant ProtectorRein
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 59%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2