?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 19 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 30 games
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 25 games
84%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 19 games
79%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 16 games
88%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 14 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 14 games
79%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
zai · 14 games
71%

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
74%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 21 game
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 20 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 18 games
78%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 17 games
76%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 17 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 15 games
47%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Panda · 14 games
93%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1002 picks · 682 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
657 picks · 480 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
606 picks · 956 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
553 picks · 433 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
522 picks · 360 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
517 picks · 1175 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
513 picks · 369 bans
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
498 picks · 370 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:9
Team Liquid 60%Evil Geniuses 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunamiCKe
49% · 96 games59% · 304 games
LeshracChris Luck
Leshrac
Pangolier
PangolierNisha
43% · 360 games52% · 298 games
Monkey KingPakazs
Monkey King
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightzai
46% · 200 games51% · 231 game
TimbersawWisper
Timbersaw
Mirana
MiranaiNSaNiA
51% · 340 games55% · 159 games
IoPanda
Io
Rubick
RubickBoxi
46% · 514 games49% · 518 games
TuskMatthew
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct52:19
Team Liquid 62%Evil Geniuses 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekermiCKe
43% · 122 games39% · 72 games
SpectrePakazs
Spectre
Pangolier
PangolierNisha
54% · 376 games57% · 245 games
Storm SpiritChris Luck
Storm Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightzai
52% · 202 games45% · 370 games
Death ProphetWisper
Death Prophet
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoxi
47% · 305 games49% · 290 games
MarciMatthew
Marci
Disruptor
DisruptoriNSaNiA
53% · 174 games57% · 202 games
BanePanda
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 68%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2