Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:1series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Old Gloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Old G
Rubick
xsvampire · 17 games
Ursasignature
Shigetsu · 16 games
Leshracoften banned
young G · 14 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
No[o]ne · 14 games
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 13 games
Tinysignature
xsvampire · 13 games
Silencer
Hduo · 12 games
Snapfiresignature
Resolut1on · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1012 picks · 681 bans
Tiny
658 picks · 483 bans
Nature's Prophet
609 picks · 956 bans
Tusk
559 picks · 439 bans
Snapfire
524 picks · 359 bans
Death Prophet
519 picks · 1175 bans
Disruptor
510 picks · 367 bans
Treant Protector
501 picks · 489 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 69%
Hero pool strength54% Old G
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total67% Old G
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:38
PuckChamp 33%Old G 67%
The model gave 67% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 56:27.
Game 2prediction correct43:14
PuckChamp 33%Old G 67%
The model gave 67% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 32:20.
Game 3prediction correct39:23
PuckChamp 33%Old G 67%
The model gave 67% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 41:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteOld G · 67%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3