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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 45 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 30 games
67%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 29 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 28 games
75%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 28 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 27 games
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 24 games
71%

Vici Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 19 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakiro
y` · 18 games
33%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
shiro · 13 games
46%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Faith_bian · 12 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xm · 11 games
36%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
pLAnet · 11 games
73%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 11 games
45%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
616 picks · 578 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
505 picks · 401 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
467 picks · 398 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
442 picks · 487 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
426 picks · 208 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
407 picks · 253 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
388 picks · 1035 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
383 picks · 873 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 59%
Hero pool strength58% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total57% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:41
Team Liquid 56%Vici Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 1:06:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNisha
44% · 341 game48% · 386 games
Tinyshiro
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierAce
44% · 342 games51% · 399 games
Ember SpiritXm
Ember Spirit
Bristleback
BristlebackmiCKe
56% · 262 games52% · 410 games
BatriderXinQ
Batrider
Hoodwink
HoodwinkEkki
50% · 319 games54% · 63 games
Night StalkerFaith_bian
Night Stalker
Oracle
OracletOfu
55% · 94 games47% · 100 games
Ancient Apparitiony`
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct29:14
Team Liquid 51%Vici Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 38:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezmiCKe
50% · 73 games49% · 190 games
Monkey Kingshiro
Monkey King
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNisha
48% · 244 games47% · 105 games
ViperXm
Viper
Bristleback
BristlebackAce
50% · 172 games54% · 187 games
Sand KingFaith_bian
Sand King
Hoodwink
HoodwinkEkki
49% · 286 games54% · 168 games
LeshracXinQ
Leshrac
Venomancer
VenomancertOfu
43% · 59 games54% · 184 games
Enchantressy`
Enchantress
Game 3prediction correct33:8
Team Liquid 53%Vici Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 26:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangermiCKe
57% · 236 games43% · 217 games
Queen of PainXm
Queen of Pain
Pangolier
PangolierAce
47% · 367 games57% · 313 games
Tinyshiro
Tiny
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
49% · 291 game60% · 206 games
BristlebackFaith_bian
Bristleback
Techies
TechiestOfu
40% · 41 game52% · 176 games
Phoenixy`
Phoenix
Io
IoEkki
42% · 41 game49% · 64 games
GrimstrokeXinQ
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 57%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3