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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ancient Tribeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Tusk
Tusksignature
Zayac · 15 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Nisha · 11 games
55%
Marci
Marcisignature
Zayac · 8 games
63%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Zayac · 8 games
75%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Resolut1on · 8 games
50%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangersignature
Crystallis · 7 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Armel · 7 games
57%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 7 games
57%

Ancient Tribe

Tiny
Tinysignature
Alexxo · 17 games
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Alexxo · 15 games
60%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MTD · 11 games
27%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MTD · 10 games
60%
Mirana
Miranasignature
LeBronDota · 10 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
Heaven · 10 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Alexxo · 9 games
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LeBronDota · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1011 picks · 679 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
658 picks · 480 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
609 picks · 956 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
558 picks · 439 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
522 picks · 359 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
518 picks · 1171 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
510 picks · 365 bans
56%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
501 picks · 491 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:20
Team Secret 66%Ancient Tribe 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 50:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritArmel
47% · 428 games53% · 201 game
Morphlinglil pleb
Morphling
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
48% · 267 games46% · 409 games
SnapfireMikSa`
Snapfire
Underlord
UnderlordBOOM
50% · 74 games50% · 259 games
Dragon KnightMo13ei
Dragon Knight
Mirana
Miranayamich
57% · 384 games52% · 341 game
ClockwerkAlexxo
Clockwerk
Enchantress
EnchantressPuppey
47% · 351 game48% · 294 games
UndyingLeBronDota
Undying
Game 2prediction correct42:23
Team Secret 66%Ancient Tribe 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 42:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracArmel
54% · 345 games53% · 327 games
Nature's Prophetlil pleb
Nature's Prophet
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCrystallis
50% · 179 games47% · 247 games
DoomMikSa`
Doom
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBOOM
50% · 418 games48% · 680 games
TinyMo13ei
Tiny
Enchantress
EnchantressPuppey
49% · 413 games45% · 406 games
SnapfireAlexxo
Snapfire
Tusk
Tuskyamich
51% · 718 games51% · 413 games
ClockwerkLeBronDota
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 78%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2