Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
D2 Hustlerswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1011 picks · 676 bans
Tiny
655 picks · 479 bans
Nature's Prophet
609 picks · 956 bans
Tusk
559 picks · 440 bans
Snapfire
522 picks · 359 bans
Death Prophet
519 picks · 1169 bans
Disruptor
507 picks · 365 bans
Treant Protector
502 picks · 492 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Alliance
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total54% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:36
Alliance 54%D2 Hustlers 46%
The model gave 54% on Alliance — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 46:59.
Game 2prediction correct37:15
Alliance 54%D2 Hustlers 46%
The model gave 54% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 44:46.
Game 3prediction missed11:27
Alliance 54%D2 Hustlers 46%
The model gave 54% on Alliance — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 37:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 54%
Series resultD2 Hustlers 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3