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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Brightwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Holy Grailloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Bright

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 4 games
50%
Lich
Lich
Undyne_ · 2 games
100%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Irving · 2 games
100%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Undyne_ · 2 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 2 games
100%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Irving · 2 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Undyne_ · 1 game
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Irving · 1 game
100%

Holy Grail

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
33%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
omoxiloyi · 4 games
25%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
omoxiloyi · 3 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
omoxiloyi · 2 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
omoxiloyi · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1009 picks · 675 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
657 picks · 479 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
608 picks · 956 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
558 picks · 439 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
521 picks · 358 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
517 picks · 1167 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
504 picks · 364 bans
56%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
503 picks · 493 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% Team Bright
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Team Bright
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:51
Team Bright 58%Holy Grail 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 1:11:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshracphoenix
46% · 168 games47% · 256 games
Death ProphetButterflyEffect
Death Prophet
Primal Beast
Primal BeastIrving
50% · 174 games55% · 281 game
Clockwerkomoxiloyi
Clockwerk
Tusk
TuskUndyne_
50% · 284 games52% · 89 games
TidehunterTzy
Tidehunter
Game 2prediction correct39:21
Team Bright 59%Holy Grail 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 31:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinphoenix
58% · 67 games48% · 67 games
ZeusButterflyEffect
Zeus
Timbersaw
TimbersawIrving
49% · 74 games45% · 69 games
DoomTzy
Doom
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonUndyne_
56% · 15 games43% · 20 games
Techiesomoxiloyi
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bright · 64%
Series resultTeam Bright 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2