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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 31 game
68%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 25 games
80%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 19 games
79%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 16 games
81%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
zai · 15 games
73%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
zai · 14 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 14 games
79%

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 23 games
74%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 21 game
71%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 20 games
70%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
61%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 15 games
80%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 14 games
79%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fly · 13 games
62%
Lycan
Lycansignature
SabeRLight- · 12 games
92%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1008 picks · 674 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
657 picks · 479 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
608 picks · 955 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
558 picks · 439 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
521 picks · 358 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
517 picks · 1167 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
504 picks · 362 bans
56%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
503 picks · 493 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total79% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:12
Team Liquid 67%Shopify Rebellion 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracmiCKe
55% · 174 games41% · 145 games
Shadow FiendArteezy
Shadow Fiend
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightzai
49% · 118 games53% · 229 games
DoomSabeRLight-
Doom
Pangolier
PangolierNisha
54% · 292 games53% · 283 games
ClockwerkCr1t-
Clockwerk
Io
IoBoxi
51% · 72 games44% · 176 games
SilencerFly
Silencer
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
50% · 177 games
Game 2prediction correct25:6
Team Liquid 67%Shopify Rebellion 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 26:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracNisha
56% · 69 games49% · 202 games
DoomSabeRLight-
Doom
Slark
SlarkmiCKe
61% · 42 games66% · 32 games
Lone DruidArteezy
Lone Druid
Underlord
Underlordzai
48% · 21 game50% · 67 games
Shadow DemonFly
Shadow Demon
Rubick
RubickiNSaNiA
45% · 173 games40% · 55 games
Dark WillowCr1t-
Dark Willow
Io
IoBoxi
44% · 51 game
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 79%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2