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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Ravensloss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
x5 Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ravens

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Cara · 13 games
46%
Rubick
Rubick
d1smar · 13 games
15%
Snapfire
Snapfire
d1smar · 9 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
PiPi · 8 games
25%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
29%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
43%
Mirana
Mirana
Demon · 6 games
33%

x5 Gaming

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Benny · 5 games
60%
Mirana
Mirana
Wij · 5 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantress
FCR · 4 games
25%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Wij · 4 games
25%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
FCR · 3 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
FCR · 3 games
33%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
FCR · 3 games
67%
Clinkz
Clinkz
Benny · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1001 picks · 674 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
658 picks · 482 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
607 picks · 958 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
558 picks · 435 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
521 picks · 357 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
517 picks · 1160 bans
51%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
506 picks · 494 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
502 picks · 360 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 60%
Hero pool strength59% x5 Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Ravens
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:32
Ravens 50%x5 Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by Ravens in 43:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
UnderlordBenjaz
50% · 34 games57% · 40 games
Anti-MageBenny
Anti-Mage
Batrider
BatriderTaO
57% · 115 games44% · 329 games
SnapfireFCR
Snapfire
Disruptor
Disruptord1smar
55% · 148 games48% · 177 games
EnchantressWij
Enchantress
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCara
45% · 249 games
Game 2prediction correct21:33
Ravens 48%x5 Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by x5 Gaming in 41:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanBenjaz
50% · 84 games52% · 169 games
MorphlingBenny
Morphling
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTaO
44% · 123 games53% · 157 games
TimbersawFCR
Timbersaw
Rubick
Rubickd1smar
48% · 328 games53% · 312 games
MiranaWij
Mirana
Silencer
SilencerCara
47% · 103 games
Game 3prediction correct16:39
Ravens 48%x5 Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by x5 Gaming in 34:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetBenjaz
50% · 253 games51% · 344 games
MarciBenny
Marci
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritTaO
45% · 275 games48% · 296 games
Primal BeastFCR
Primal Beast
Tusk
Tuskd1smar
46% · 335 games56% · 423 games
MiranaWij
Mirana
Enchantress
EnchantressCara
52% · 200 games
Model check result
Model favoriteRavens · 50%
Series resultx5 Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3