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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Mad Kingswin 2:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Balrogsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Mad Kings

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Gardick · 17 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
Gardick · 17 games
47%
Tiny
Tiny
Elmisho · 16 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Gardick · 15 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 13 games
69%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 13 games
77%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Vitaly · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 12 games
25%

Balrogs

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Demon · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 9 games
78%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
ShakaLord · 9 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
drakesh1t · 8 games
75%
Silencer
Silencersignature
ShakaLord · 8 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Demon · 8 games
38%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
ShakaLord · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1001 picks · 674 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
657 picks · 482 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
607 picks · 958 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
560 picks · 433 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
521 picks · 357 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
515 picks · 1158 bans
51%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
507 picks · 496 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
502 picks · 358 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Balrogs
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total52% Balrogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:30
Mad Kings 49%Balrogs 51%
The model gave 51% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 37:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenDaaD-
52% · 56 games48% · 68 games
LifestealerDM
Lifestealer
Batrider
BatriderPiPi
56% · 191 game54% · 277 games
PangolierÑengoflow KELOKE
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerArzenT
43% · 91 game44% · 217 games
HoodwinkDemon
Hoodwink
Rubick
RubickGenek
51% · 409 games51% · 185 games
EnchantressShakaLord
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct8:31
Mad Kings 46%Balrogs 54%
The model gave 54% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 32:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaDaaD-
52% · 96 games50% · 57 games
Wraith KingDM
Wraith King
Tiny
TinyPiPi
47% · 368 games53% · 404 games
Ember SpiritÑengoflow KELOKE
Ember Spirit
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderArzenT
35% · 34 games52% · 79 games
Earth SpiritDemon
Earth Spirit
Rubick
RubickGenek
52% · 361 game54% · 319 games
UndyingShakaLord
Undying
Game 3prediction correct19:17
Mad Kings 51%Balrogs 49%
The model gave 51% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 39:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingDaaD-
48% · 27 games43% · 142 games
TerrorbladeDM
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritPiPi
51% · 312 games44% · 270 games
TuskÑengoflow KELOKE
Tusk
Dark Seer
Dark SeerArzenT
58% · 78 games43% · 153 games
Primal BeastDemon
Primal Beast
Mirana
MiranaGenek
56% · 297 games53% · 149 games
SilencerShakaLord
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteBalrogs · 52%
Series resultMad Kings 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3