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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OGloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 22 games
73%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 20 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 17 games
71%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 17 games
76%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 16 games
81%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 16 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 14 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 13 games
54%

OG

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Taiga · 24 games
63%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
Taiga · 12 games
42%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Chuvash · 11 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
bzm · 11 games
55%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Taiga · 10 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 9 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Taiga · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
998 picks · 674 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
657 picks · 482 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
604 picks · 958 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
559 picks · 433 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
521 picks · 356 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
514 picks · 1157 bans
51%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
507 picks · 496 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
502 picks · 356 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 47%
Hero pool strength57% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:12
Evil Geniuses 56%OG 44%
The model gave 56% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 30:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPakazs
52% · 335 games54% · 237 games
MorphlingYuragi
Morphling
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinChris Luck
52% · 165 games45% · 147 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Death Prophet
Death ProphetWisper
47% · 454 games55% · 87 games
UnderlordDM
Underlord
Tusk
TuskMatthew
49% · 434 games47% · 739 games
RubickTaiga
Rubick
Silencer
SilencerPanda
45% · 210 games54% · 388 games
MarciChuvash
Marci
Game 2prediction missed32:45
Evil Geniuses 54%OG 46%
The model gave 54% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by OG in 1:01:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPakazs
51% · 132 games48% · 307 games
Nature's ProphetYuragi
Nature's Prophet
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritChris Luck
49% · 357 games47% · 268 games
Primal Beastbzm
Primal Beast
Leshrac
LeshracWisper
58% · 225 games53% · 27 games
VenomancerDM
Venomancer
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPanda
54% · 358 games43% · 48 games
Elder TitanChuvash
Elder Titan
Riki
RikiMatthew
56% · 121 game44% · 543 games
RubickTaiga
Rubick
Game 3prediction correct30:15
Evil Geniuses 54%OG 46%
The model gave 54% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 33:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MagePakazs
52% · 83 games53% · 228 games
Nature's ProphetYuragi
Nature's Prophet
Doom
DoomWisper
45% · 294 games47% · 205 games
Puckbzm
Puck
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritChris Luck
54% · 225 games57% · 34 games
SlardarDM
Slardar
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMatthew
50% · 329 games50% · 337 games
RubickTaiga
Rubick
Io
IoPanda
49% · 126 games47% · 253 games
ClockwerkChuvash
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 56%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3