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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 4 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
pma · 4 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 4 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
gotthejuice · 2 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ri4man · 2 games
100%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Riddys · 2 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
gotthejuice · 2 games
100%
Tiny
Tiny
Daze · 2 games
100%

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 13 games
54%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Hellscream · 13 games
62%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
so bad · 13 games
38%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Malr1ne · 11 games
73%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Corrupted · 10 games
80%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Hellscream · 10 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Malr1ne · 9 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Malr1ne · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
998 picks · 673 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
658 picks · 483 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
604 picks · 956 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
561 picks · 433 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
521 picks · 356 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
515 picks · 1156 bans
51%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
508 picks · 496 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
498 picks · 356 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:26
Natus Vincere Junior 40%Nemiga Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 29:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassingotthejuice
50% · 137 games48% · 286 games
Terrorbladev1olent-
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckRi4man
55% · 229 games53% · 290 games
LeshracMalr1ne
Leshrac
Doom
Doompma
48% · 222 games47% · 147 games
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
Centaur Warrunner
Tiny
TinyDaze
47% · 615 games48% · 563 games
Clockwerkso bad
Clockwerk
Snapfire
SnapfireRiddys
47% · 412 games59% · 329 games
DisruptorHellscream
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct8:28
Natus Vincere Junior 39%Nemiga Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 24:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomgotthejuice
52% · 192 games49% · 151 game
TimbersawMalr1ne
Timbersaw
Puck
PuckRi4man
55% · 214 games50% · 192 games
Terrorbladev1olent-
Terrorblade
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerpma
49% · 62 games51% · 29 games
NecrophosCorrupted
Necrophos
Rubick
RubickDaze
41% · 501 game47% · 358 games
Clockwerkso bad
Clockwerk
Jakiro
JakiroRiddys
52% · 86 games55% · 325 games
DisruptorHellscream
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 69%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2