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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Big Brainloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
iG Vitalitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Big Brain

Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Tz. · 8 games
25%
Tusk
Tusk
marblue · 8 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Molasses · 7 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Molasses · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Tz. · 6 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Molasses · 5 games
80%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Molasses · 5 games
40%
Mirana
Mirana
marblue · 5 games
40%

iG Vitality

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sj · 10 games
60%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ukiyo · 10 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ash · 7 games
86%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Drink · 6 games
83%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Sj · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Drink · 5 games
20%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
ukiyo · 5 games
40%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
dolem · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
995 picks · 674 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
659 picks · 483 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
603 picks · 952 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
561 picks · 432 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
522 picks · 356 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
515 picks · 1150 bans
51%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
509 picks · 499 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
496 picks · 353 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% iG Vitality
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% iG Vitality
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:36
Big Brain 45%iG Vitality 55%
The model gave 55% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 39:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomManic
48% · 197 games51% · 239 games
Nature's Prophetdolem
Nature's Prophet
Lycan
LycanMolasses
44% · 130 games55% · 215 games
Monkey Kingukiyo
Monkey King
Puck
PuckEcho
52% · 240 games50% · 186 games
Storm SpiritAsh
Storm Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressTz.
48% · 201 game52% · 129 games
Nyx AssassinDrink
Nyx Assassin
Phoenix
Phoenixmarblue
48% · 146 games52% · 145 games
SilencerSj
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct20:36
Big Brain 47%iG Vitality 53%
The model gave 53% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 38:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal Beast
Primal BeastEcho
49% · 313 games54% · 88 games
Chaos Knightukiyo
Chaos Knight
Pudge
PudgeManic
48% · 164 games48% · 463 games
TinyAsh
Tiny
Visage
Visagemarblue
60% · 221 game44% · 234 games
Death Prophetdolem
Death Prophet
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMolasses
49% · 156 games49% · 307 games
TuskDrink
Tusk
Disruptor
DisruptorTz.
56% · 316 games42% · 78 games
LichSj
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteiG Vitality · 58%
Series resultiG Vitality 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2