Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Piggy Killerwin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
孤孤独摇滚loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Piggy Killer
Tiny
Frisk · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Srf · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 4 games
Mirana
Frisk · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Xm · 2 games
Disruptor
Frisk · 2 games
Enchantress
Victoria · 2 games
孤独摇滚
Beastmasteroften banned
strawberry · 4 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
strawberry · 3 games
Doomoften banned
strawberry · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
strawberry · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
Marsoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
995 picks · 674 bans
Tiny
659 picks · 483 bans
Nature's Prophet
603 picks · 954 bans
Tusk
562 picks · 432 bans
Snapfire
522 picks · 357 bans
Death Prophet
517 picks · 1148 bans
Treant Protector
509 picks · 502 bans
Disruptor
498 picks · 352 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)82% vs 54%
Hero pool strength64% Piggy Killer
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total83% Piggy Killer
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:18
Piggy Killer 71%孤独摇滚 29%
The model gave 71% on Piggy Killer — the game was taken by Piggy Killer in 42:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterSrf
NecrophosDstones
Slarkflyfly
Dawnbreakerstrawberry
Ember SpiritXm
EnchantressVictoria
TinyFrisk
Game 2prediction correct31:8
Piggy Killer 69%孤独摇滚 31%
The model gave 69% on Piggy Killer — the game was taken by Piggy Killer in 24:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetSrf
Ember SpiritDstones
NecrophosXm
Night Stalkerstrawberry
Pudgeflyfly
JakiroVictoria
TinyFrisk
Model check result
Model favoritePiggy Killer · 83%
Series resultPiggy Killer 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2