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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PuckChamploss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Resolut1on · 14 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
Zayac · 14 games
57%
Marci
Marcisignature
Zayac · 10 games
60%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Zayac · 10 games
80%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Resolut1on · 8 games
50%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Puppey · 8 games
75%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Crystallis · 7 games
71%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangersignature
Crystallis · 7 games
71%

PuckChamp

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
998 picks · 674 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
658 picks · 485 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
602 picks · 954 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
562 picks · 434 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
524 picks · 360 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
514 picks · 1144 bans
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
510 picks · 505 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
496 picks · 348 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 64%
Hero pool strength55% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:7
Team Secret 78%PuckChamp 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 33:25.
Game 2prediction correct16:8
Team Secret 78%PuckChamp 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 29:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 78%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2