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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 1:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
beastcoastwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 20 games
75%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 19 games
79%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 17 games
71%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 16 games
81%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 16 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 15 games
80%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 14 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 13 games
54%

beastcoast

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
997 picks · 673 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
658 picks · 484 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
602 picks · 954 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
559 picks · 434 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
524 picks · 357 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
511 picks · 1144 bans
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
510 picks · 505 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
496 picks · 348 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 53%
Hero pool strength62% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total57% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:24
Evil Geniuses 57%beastcoast 43%
The model gave 57% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 39:32.
Game 2prediction missed31:35
Evil Geniuses 57%beastcoast 43%
The model gave 57% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by beastcoast in 39:35.
Game 3prediction missed43:34
Evil Geniuses 57%beastcoast 43%
The model gave 57% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by beastcoast in 49:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 57%
Series resultbeastcoast 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3