DreamLeague Season 19 · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Undyingsignature
Fly · 25 games
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 22 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 20 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 19 games
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 14 games
Enigmasignature
SabeRLight- · 13 games
Miranasignature
Fly · 13 games
OG
Rubicksignature
Taiga · 23 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 17 games
Tiny
Taiga · 12 games
Disruptorsignature
Chuvash · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
bzm · 11 games
Snapfire
Misha · 11 games
Dark Willowsignature
Taiga · 10 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Taiga · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
994 picks · 673 bans
Tiny
659 picks · 483 bans
Nature's Prophet
601 picks · 948 bans
Tusk
558 picks · 434 bans
Snapfire
523 picks · 357 bans
Death Prophet
511 picks · 1143 bans
Treant Protector
510 picks · 505 bans
Disruptor
493 picks · 346 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 45%
Hero pool strength58% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:32
Shopify Rebellion 50%OG 50%
The model gave 50% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 36:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinArteezy
TerrorbladeYuragi
Sand KingSabeRLight-
Puckbzm
HoodwinkCr1t-
BeastmasterDM
UndyingFly
EnchantressChuvash
45% · 38 games
Dark WillowTaiga
Game 2prediction missed15:52
Shopify Rebellion 53%OG 47%
The model gave 53% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by OG in 34:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingArteezy
Ember SpiritYuragi
Nature's ProphetSabeRLight-
Shadow Fiendbzm
DisruptorFly
DoomDM
TuskCr1t-
PhoenixChuvash
48% · 561 game
RubickTaiga
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 51%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2