Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYloss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Old Gwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IVY
Mirana
Qupe · 24 games
Tiny
Qupe · 20 games
Tusk
Mo13ei · 19 games
Clockwerksignature
Qupe · 16 games
Leshracoften banned
pio65 · 14 games
Treant Protector
jmn- · 13 games
Luna
pio65 · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mo13ei · 11 games
Old G
Rubick
xsvampire · 16 games
Ursasignature
Shigetsu · 16 games
Leshracoften banned
young G · 14 games
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 13 games
Tinysignature
xsvampire · 13 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
No[o]ne · 12 games
Silencer
Hduo · 12 games
Snapfiresignature
Resolut1on · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
995 picks · 672 bans
Tiny
659 picks · 483 bans
Nature's Prophet
600 picks · 948 bans
Tusk
558 picks · 435 bans
Snapfire
523 picks · 356 bans
Death Prophet
513 picks · 1143 bans
Treant Protector
510 picks · 507 bans
Disruptor
493 picks · 344 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Old G
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Old G
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:42
IVY 36%Old G 64%
The model gave 64% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 34:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightxannii
DoomNo[o]ne
LeshracStojkov
RazorResolut1on
Phoenixjmn-
Earth SpiritTopson
MiranaQupe
IoCeb
Game 2prediction correct16:47
IVY 36%Old G 64%
The model gave 64% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 35:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladexannii
Nature's ProphetResolut1on
LeshracStojkov
DoomNo[o]ne
MiranaQupe
Earth SpiritTopson
Silencerjmn-
Monkey KingCeb
Model check result
Model favoriteOld G · 77%
Series resultOld G 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2