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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
SPAWN Teamwin 2:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
UD Vessuwanloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SPAWN Team

Tusk
Tusk
dalul · 26 games
46%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TraVins · 20 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
TraVins · 19 games
42%
Tiny
Tiny
dalul · 16 games
44%
Marci
Marcioften banned
dalul · 14 games
43%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Jikroy · 13 games
54%
Silencer
Silencer
TraVins · 13 games
38%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Jikroy · 11 games
55%

UD Vessuwan

Rubick
Rubick
boombell · 13 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
LionaX · 11 games
27%
Tiny
Tiny
Beebie · 11 games
45%
Mirana
Mirana
boombell · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Beebie · 9 games
44%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
LionaX · 8 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
boombell · 7 games
0%
Undying
Undyingsignature
LionaX · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
991 picks · 675 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
660 picks · 485 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
597 picks · 950 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
560 picks · 436 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
526 picks · 357 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
514 picks · 1143 bans
51%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
511 picks · 510 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
489 picks · 366 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 41%
Hero pool strength54% SPAWN Team
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total50% UD Vessuwan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:28
SPAWN Team 48%UD Vessuwan 52%
The model gave 52% on UD Vessuwan — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 43:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageDreamocel
50% · 49 games49% · 263 games
PuckBeebie
Puck
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMamangDaya
44% · 237 games57% · 112 games
LifestealerKNP
Lifestealer
Enigma
EnigmawoMy
53% · 263 games49% · 639 games
Rubickboombell
Rubick
Tiny
Tinydalul
49% · 611 games53% · 321 game
UndyingLionaX
Undying
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenHyde
47% · 175 games
Game 2prediction missed10:41
SPAWN Team 50%UD Vessuwan 50%
The model gave 50% on SPAWN Team — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 36:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendDreamocel
44% · 179 games49% · 167 games
SniperKNP
Sniper
Batrider
BatriderMamangDaya
46% · 271 game51% · 440 games
PangolierBeebie
Pangolier
Beastmaster
BeastmasterwoMy
55% · 377 games53% · 781 game
Tinyboombell
Tiny
Enchantress
EnchantressHyde
49% · 268 games51% · 271 game
Crystal MaidenLionaX
Crystal Maiden
Rubick
Rubickdalul
50% · 564 games
Game 3prediction missed52:43
SPAWN Team 49%UD Vessuwan 51%
The model gave 51% on UD Vessuwan — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 1:00:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerDreamocel
37% · 128 games57% · 140 games
SniperKNP
Sniper
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMamangDaya
50% · 225 games48% · 389 games
Ember SpiritBeebie
Ember Spirit
Tiny
Tinydalul
57% · 596 games46% · 113 games
JakiroLionaX
Jakiro
Magnus
MagnuswoMy
51% · 49 games47% · 655 games
Rubickboombell
Rubick
Disruptor
DisruptorHyde
55% · 299 games
Model check result
Model favoriteUD Vessuwan · 50%
Series resultSPAWN Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3