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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
MoneyMakerswin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Sigma.YNTloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MoneyMakers

Rubick
Rubick
CeMaTheSlayeR · 14 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
CeMaTheSlayeR · 11 games
64%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Bb3px · 9 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lukas · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 8 games
38%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Egor · 6 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
CeMaTheSlayeR · 6 games
33%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Egor · 6 games
83%

Sigma.YNT

Tiny
Tiny
queezy · 26 games
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
VANSKOR · 17 games
47%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 16 games
38%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
v1olent- · 13 games
54%
Doom
Doomsignature
kur0patbI4 · 12 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
foryou · 12 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kur0patbI4 · 11 games
55%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
kur0patbI4 · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
991 picks · 672 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
662 picks · 484 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
599 picks · 948 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
560 picks · 437 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
528 picks · 354 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
518 picks · 514 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
514 picks · 1136 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
490 picks · 364 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 42%
Hero pool strength52% Sigma.YNT
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Sigma.YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:29
MoneyMakers 51%Sigma.YNT 49%
The model gave 51% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT in 31:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerLukas
43% · 176 games54% · 157 games
UrsaDarkLord^
Ursa
Tusk
TuskEgor
49% · 397 games45% · 320 games
Death Prophetforyou
Death Prophet
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCeMaTheSlayeR
56% · 364 games52% · 88 games
Centaur Warrunnerkur0patbI4
Centaur Warrunner
Disruptor
DisruptorBignum
60% · 244 games43% · 216 games
Hoodwinkqueezy
Hoodwink
46% · 400 games
SnapfireVANSKOR
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct35:8
MoneyMakers 52%Sigma.YNT 48%
The model gave 52% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 52:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeLukas
53% · 170 games54% · 33 games
Phantom LancerDarkLord^
Phantom Lancer
Death Prophet
Death ProphetEgor
52% · 354 games52% · 18 games
Tinkerforyou
Tinker
Elder Titan
Elder TitanCeMaTheSlayeR
47% · 41 game46% · 469 games
Rubickqueezy
Rubick
Disruptor
DisruptorBignum
58% · 273 games41% · 61 game
Centaur Warrunnerkur0patbI4
Centaur Warrunner
48% · 257 games
SnapfireVANSKOR
Snapfire
Game 3prediction missed46:34
MoneyMakers 48%Sigma.YNT 52%
The model gave 52% on Sigma.YNT — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 1:22:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenLukas
53% · 135 games60% · 206 games
Monkey KingDarkLord^
Monkey King
Puck
PuckEgor
56% · 340 games46% · 221 game
Enchantresskur0patbI4
Enchantress
Rubick
RubickCeMaTheSlayeR
47% · 672 games44% · 27 games
Outworld Destroyerforyou
Outworld Destroyer
Disruptor
DisruptorBignum
52% · 291 game48% · 604 games
Tinyqueezy
Tiny
40% · 380 games
SnapfireVANSKOR
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteSigma.YNT · 55%
Series resultMoneyMakers 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3