DreamLeague Season 19 · BO1
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:1
TSMwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 27 games
Marcisignature
Shanks · 23 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 20 games
Tiny
Shanks · 20 games
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 16 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Tino- · 15 games
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 10 games
Enigmaoften banned
Tino- · 10 games
TSM
Rubicksignature
Ari · 21 game
Lycansignature
kasane · 13 games
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
kasane · 11 games
Leshracoften banned
bryle- · 11 games
Marcioften banned
Timado · 11 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bryle- · 11 games
Undyingoften banned
Whitemon · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
990 picks · 671 bans
Tiny
662 picks · 484 bans
Nature's Prophet
598 picks · 948 bans
Tusk
560 picks · 437 bans
Snapfire
528 picks · 354 bans
Treant Protector
518 picks · 514 bans
Death Prophet
513 picks · 1135 bans
Clockwerk
490 picks · 363 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:30
Execration 45%TSM 55%
The model gave 55% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 41:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingPalos
TerrorbladeTimado
Dragon KnightBob
Lycankasane
RikiTino-
Puckbryle-
MiranaShanks
RubickAri
41% · 197 games
UndyingWhitemon
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 60%
Series resultTSM 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1