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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
No Sorryloss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

No Sorry

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
BLACKARXANGEL · 18 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
BLACKARXANGEL · 13 games
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Dodren · 13 games
38%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Dinozavrik · 13 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 11 games
45%
Rubick
Rubick
ArrOw · 9 games
44%
Tusk
Tusk
Dodren · 9 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Blizzy · 8 games
75%

Natus Vincere Junior

Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 4 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Daze · 2 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 2 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Riddys · 2 games
50%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
pma · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 1 game
100%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
gotthejuice · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ri4man · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
989 picks · 669 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
661 picks · 483 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
597 picks · 948 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
560 picks · 437 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
528 picks · 354 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
518 picks · 514 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
512 picks · 1133 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
490 picks · 362 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% No Sorry
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:27
No Sorry 51%Natus Vincere Junior 49%
The model gave 51% on No Sorry — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 47:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaDinozavrik
48% · 151 game46% · 134 games
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Templar Assassin
Kunkka
KunkkaDodren
46% · 144 games50% · 337 games
PangolierRi4man
Pangolier
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDominic
55% · 332 games53% · 220 games
Dragon Knightpma
Dragon Knight
Enchantress
EnchantressBLACKARXANGEL
49% · 313 games56% · 341 game
MiranaDaze
Mirana
Hoodwink
Hoodwinky0nd
42% · 306 games55% · 214 games
DisruptorRiddys
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed18:41
No Sorry 52%Natus Vincere Junior 48%
The model gave 52% on No Sorry — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 32:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaDinozavrik
45% · 174 games58% · 81 game
Naga Sirengotthejuice
Naga Siren
Windranger
WindrangerDodren
44% · 43 games50% · 167 games
Dragon KnightRi4man
Dragon Knight
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDominic
55% · 339 games41% · 36 games
Magnuspma
Magnus
Enchantress
EnchantressBLACKARXANGEL
45% · 243 games52% · 413 games
TinyDaze
Tiny
Dark Willow
Dark Willowy0nd
54% · 61 game52% · 163 games
DisruptorRiddys
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 55%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2