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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 0:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Execrationwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 24 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 19 games
79%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Xxs · 16 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 16 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
BoBoKa · 16 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Fantasy · 15 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xxs · 14 games
29%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xwy · 14 games
50%

Execration

Visage
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 27 games
59%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 23 games
70%
Tiny
Tiny
Shanks · 20 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 19 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 16 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Tino- · 14 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 10 games
80%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Tino- · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
989 picks · 669 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
661 picks · 483 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
597 picks · 948 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
560 picks · 437 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
528 picks · 354 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
518 picks · 514 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
512 picks · 1133 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
490 picks · 362 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 41%
Hero pool strength50% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:26
Team Aster 55%Execration 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Execration in 36:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMonet
52% · 180 games51% · 272 games
Nature's ProphetPalos
Nature's Prophet
Death Prophet
Death ProphetXwy
49% · 474 games48% · 195 games
DoomTino-
Doom
Enigma
EnigmaXxs
55% · 264 games44% · 253 games
Ember SpiritBob
Ember Spirit
Disruptor
DisruptorBoBoKa
56% · 338 games46% · 595 games
RubickShanks
Rubick
Elder Titan
Elder TitanFantasy
51% · 59 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 58%
Series resultExecration 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1