Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 1:2series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:2
IVYwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
IVY
Mirana
Qupe · 23 games
Tiny
Qupe · 20 games
Tusk
Mo13ei · 18 games
Clockwerksignature
Qupe · 16 games
Leshracoften banned
pio65 · 13 games
Treant Protector
jmn- · 13 games
Luna
pio65 · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mo13ei · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
991 picks · 670 bans
Tiny
660 picks · 484 bans
Nature's Prophet
595 picks · 945 bans
Tusk
563 picks · 437 bans
Snapfire
532 picks · 353 bans
Treant Protector
522 picks · 518 bans
Death Prophet
512 picks · 1124 bans
Clockwerk
489 picks · 363 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 47%
Hero pool strength50% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:26
PuckChamp 72%IVY 28%
The model gave 72% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by IVY in 33:40.
Game 2prediction missed12:37
PuckChamp 72%IVY 28%
The model gave 72% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by IVY in 48:27.
Game 3prediction missed37:15
PuckChamp 72%IVY 28%
The model gave 72% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by IVY in 44:56.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 72%
Series resultIVY 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3