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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 43 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 28 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 25 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 24 games
83%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Miposhka · 22 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 20 games
80%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 19 games
74%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Mira · 19 games
47%

Nigma Galaxy

Disruptor
Disruptor
GH · 12 games
42%
Snapfire
Snapfire
KuroKy · 11 games
36%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
44%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 9 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
25%
Enchantress
Enchantress
KuroKy · 8 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
KuroKy · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
984 picks · 669 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
659 picks · 483 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
593 picks · 946 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
560 picks · 436 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
527 picks · 353 bans
46%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
522 picks · 518 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
511 picks · 1122 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
485 picks · 360 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 28%
Hero pool strength63% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:42
Team Spirit 63%Nigma Galaxy 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 39:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageYatoro
54% · 53 games52% · 138 games
SlarkMiracle-
Slark
Tiny
TinyLarl
49% · 442 games44% · 334 games
PuckSumaiL
Puck
Batrider
BatriderCollapse
49% · 173 games53% · 196 games
UrsaMinD_ContRoL
Ursa
Snapfire
SnapfireMira
39% · 269 games58% · 147 games
IoGH
Io
Disruptor
DisruptorMiposhka
57% · 167 games47% · 289 games
EnchantressKuroKy
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct30:2
Team Spirit 60%Nigma Galaxy 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 26:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerYatoro
40% · 100 games51% · 117 games
KunkkaSumaiL
Kunkka
Underlord
UnderlordCollapse
52% · 48 games59% · 114 games
RikiMiracle-
Riki
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
48% · 124 games52% · 337 games
BeastmasterMinD_ContRoL
Beastmaster
Rubick
RubickMira
48% · 308 games48% · 116 games
IoGH
Io
Undying
UndyingMiposhka
56% · 173 games44% · 69 games
Shadow DemonKuroKy
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 68%
Accuracy by game1 of 2