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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
nounsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 33 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 25 games
52%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 22 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 21 game
76%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
67%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 19 games
68%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Skiter · 18 games
89%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 18 games
83%

nouns

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 17 games
65%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 17 games
47%
Tusk
Tusk
Gunnar · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tiny
Lelis · 11 games
45%
Io
Iosignature
Husky · 8 games
75%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Gunnar · 8 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Lelis · 8 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
Moo · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
984 picks · 669 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
659 picks · 483 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
593 picks · 946 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
560 picks · 436 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
527 picks · 353 bans
46%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
522 picks · 518 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
511 picks · 1122 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
485 picks · 360 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:11
Tundra Esports 69%nouns 31%
The model gave 69% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 43:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreSkiter
52% · 90 games46% · 129 games
Drow RangerYamSun
Drow Ranger
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNine
50% · 213 games52% · 210 games
DoomMoo
Doom
Enigma
Enigma33
57% · 310 games44% · 194 games
ZeusGunnar
Zeus
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
54% · 314 games47% · 517 games
RubickLelis
Rubick
Snapfire
SnapfireAramis
47% · 496 games51% · 373 games
ClockwerkHusky
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct41:30
Tundra Esports 68%nouns 32%
The model gave 68% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 1:02:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSkiter
50% · 149 games52% · 158 games
MorphlingYamSun
Morphling
Doom
Doom33
44% · 244 games54% · 159 games
TimbersawMoo
Timbersaw
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNine
52% · 338 games52% · 396 games
RubickLelis
Rubick
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
48% · 255 games48% · 156 games
Primal BeastGunnar
Primal Beast
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAramis
49% · 76 games52% · 193 games
DisruptorHusky
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 81%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2