DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Entityloss 1:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Asterloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Team Aster
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 24 games
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 19 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 16 games
Snapfire
BoBoKa · 16 games
Beastmastersignature
Xxs · 15 games
Disruptorsignature
Fantasy · 15 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xxs · 14 games
Puckoften banned
Xwy · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
982 picks · 667 bans
Tiny
660 picks · 483 bans
Nature's Prophet
592 picks · 943 bans
Tusk
559 picks · 438 bans
Snapfire
525 picks · 352 bans
Treant Protector
524 picks · 519 bans
Death Prophet
510 picks · 1121 bans
Clockwerk
484 picks · 357 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total56% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:12
Entity 44%Team Aster 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 50:35.
Game 2prediction correct25:8
Entity 44%Team Aster 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 33:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 56%
Accuracy by game2 of 2