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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TSMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 34 games
68%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 27 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 23 games
61%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 21 game
76%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 20 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Seleri · 18 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 18 games
72%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 17 games
76%

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 20 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 12 games
83%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 12 games
83%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
bryle- · 11 games
45%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Whitemon · 11 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
kasane · 10 games
70%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 10 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
Timado · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
982 picks · 667 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
660 picks · 483 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
592 picks · 943 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
559 picks · 438 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
525 picks · 352 bans
46%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
524 picks · 519 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
510 picks · 1121 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
484 picks · 357 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total68% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:8
Gaimin Gladiators 60%TSM 40%
The model gave 60% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 24:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperQuinn
46% · 116 games52% · 340 games
Beastmasterkasane
Beastmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritdyrachyo
43% · 327 games45% · 139 games
SlarkTimado
Slark
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerAce
53% · 106 games52% · 47 games
Huskarbryle-
Huskar
Undying
UndyingSeleri
49% · 303 games56% · 260 games
MarciAri
Marci
Disruptor
DisruptortOfu
52% · 162 games53% · 228 games
EnchantressWhitemon
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct33:22
Gaimin Gladiators 60%TSM 40%
The model gave 60% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 51:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirendyrachyo
54% · 124 games41% · 145 games
Shadow Fiendbryle-
Shadow Fiend
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAce
51% · 130 games53% · 165 games
BloodseekerTimado
Bloodseeker
Pangolier
PangolierQuinn
50% · 315 games47% · 124 games
Lycankasane
Lycan
Mirana
MiranatOfu
52% · 267 games44% · 589 games
RubickAri
Rubick
Disruptor
DisruptorSeleri
56% · 255 games51% · 68 games
LionWhitemon
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 68%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2