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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Visage
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 27 games
59%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 23 games
70%
Tiny
Tiny
Shanks · 20 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 18 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 16 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Tino- · 14 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Tino- · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 9 games
78%

Evil Geniuses

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 19 games
79%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 18 games
78%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 17 games
71%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 16 games
81%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 16 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 14 games
79%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 14 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
982 picks · 667 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
660 picks · 483 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
592 picks · 943 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
559 picks · 438 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
525 picks · 352 bans
46%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
524 picks · 519 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
510 picks · 1121 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
484 picks · 357 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 61%
Hero pool strength57% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:17
Execration 42%Evil Geniuses 58%
The model gave 58% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Execration in 31:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingPalos
53% · 167 games49% · 57 games
Anti-MagePakazs
Anti-Mage
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTino-
53% · 254 games53% · 85 games
UnderlordChris Luck
Underlord
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBob
45% · 297 games53% · 247 games
BatriderWisper
Batrider
Snapfire
SnapfireShanks
43% · 312 games49% · 401 game
ClockwerkMatthew
Clockwerk
54% · 240 games
Crystal MaidenPanda
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct17:43
Execration 44%Evil Geniuses 56%
The model gave 56% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 34:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendBob
47% · 217 games54% · 53 games
LunaPakazs
Luna
Doom
DoomTino-
50% · 249 games48% · 274 games
Death ProphetWisper
Death Prophet
Monkey King
Monkey KingPalos
49% · 214 games51% · 132 games
Primal BeastChris Luck
Primal Beast
Enchantress
EnchantressShanks
50% · 237 games53% · 237 games
TuskMatthew
Tusk
49% · 221 game
UndyingPanda
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 61%
Accuracy by game1 of 2