?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
SPAWN Teamloss 1:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Horizonwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SPAWN Team

Tusk
Tusk
dalul · 26 games
46%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TraVins · 20 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
TraVins · 19 games
42%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Red · 14 games
43%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Jikroy · 13 games
54%
Silencer
Silencer
TraVins · 13 games
38%
Tiny
Tiny
dalul · 13 games
46%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Jikroy · 11 games
55%

Horizon

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
982 picks · 667 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
658 picks · 484 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
592 picks · 944 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
559 picks · 439 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
526 picks · 353 bans
46%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
524 picks · 522 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
510 picks · 1120 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
485 picks · 357 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% Horizon
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% SPAWN Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:12
SPAWN Team 62%Horizon 38%
The model gave 62% on SPAWN Team — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 37:39.
Game 2prediction missed26:37
SPAWN Team 62%Horizon 38%
The model gave 62% on SPAWN Team — the game was taken by Horizon in 39:54.
Game 3prediction missed29:42
SPAWN Team 62%Horizon 38%
The model gave 62% on SPAWN Team — the game was taken by Horizon in 57:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteSPAWN Team · 62%
Series resultHorizon 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3