Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TTTeam Toughloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Tusk
Tims · 16 games
Tiny
Yopaj · 13 games
Disruptorsignature
xNova · 11 games
Snapfire
xNova · 11 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Fbz · 10 games
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 10 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 9 games
Hoodwink
Tims · 8 games
Team Tough
Death Prophetoften banned
seimei · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
seimei · 2 games
Doomoften banned
seimei · 2 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
seimei · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
seimei · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
seimei · 1 game
Rikioften banned
seimei · 1 game
Viperoften banned
seimei · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
982 picks · 667 bans
Tiny
658 picks · 484 bans
Nature's Prophet
592 picks · 943 bans
Tusk
558 picks · 439 bans
Snapfire
526 picks · 353 bans
Treant Protector
524 picks · 522 bans
Death Prophet
509 picks · 1119 bans
Clockwerk
485 picks · 357 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% Team Tough
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:3
BOOM Esports 65%Team Tough 35%
The model gave 65% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 17:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoNatsumi
Beastmasterseimei
Primal BeastYopaj
Night StalkerFbz
MiranaXepher
SilencerxNova
Game 2prediction correct42:14
BOOM Esports 67%Team Tough 33%
The model gave 67% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 37:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendNatsumi
Death Prophetseimei
LeshracYopaj
Primal BeastFbz
Shadow DemonXepher
TuskxNova
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 81%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2