Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TiltedBoyswin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fart Studiosloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TiltedBoys
Beastmasteroften banned
Ezekiel · 5 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ezekiel · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Ezekiel · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Fart Studios
Rubick
Newsham · 11 games
Tiny
iAnnihilate · 10 games
Linasignature
iAnnihilate · 7 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Jenkins · 7 games
Disruptorsignature
Sonic · 6 games
Naga Sirensignature
BSJ · 6 games
Mirana
Newsham · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
BSJ · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
982 picks · 667 bans
Tiny
659 picks · 484 bans
Nature's Prophet
592 picks · 943 bans
Tusk
559 picks · 440 bans
Snapfire
526 picks · 353 bans
Treant Protector
525 picks · 523 bans
Death Prophet
509 picks · 1121 bans
Clockwerk
485 picks · 357 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)83% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% TiltedBoys
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total81% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
TiltedBoys 81%Fart Studios 19%
The model gave 81% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys.
Game 2prediction correct
TiltedBoys 81%Fart Studios 19%
The model gave 81% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys.
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 81%
Series resultTiltedBoys 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2