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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 33 games
73%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
iNSaNiA · 22 games
82%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
82%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 17 games
88%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
88%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
zai · 16 games
81%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
iNSaNiA · 16 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 16 games
63%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 42 games
69%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 28 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 25 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 24 games
83%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Miposhka · 22 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 19 games
79%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Mira · 19 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
982 picks · 664 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
660 picks · 480 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
592 picks · 941 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
559 picks · 439 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
525 picks · 522 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
522 picks · 349 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
510 picks · 1117 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
481 picks · 358 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 62%
Hero pool strength56% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total60% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:26
Team Liquid 57%Team Spirit 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 44:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinmiCKe
54% · 145 games52% · 204 games
TerrorbladeYatoro
Terrorblade
Pangolier
PangolierNisha
53% · 432 games46% · 113 games
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
Centaur Warrunner
Doom
Doomzai
48% · 246 games53% · 208 games
BatriderLarl
Batrider
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
43% · 323 games52% · 500 games
RubickMira
Rubick
Enchantress
EnchantressiNSaNiA
49% · 258 games51% · 379 games
TuskMiposhka
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed29:34
Team Liquid 56%Team Spirit 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 42:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
49% · 271 game36% · 52 games
Phantom LancerYatoro
Phantom Lancer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
44% · 378 games60% · 296 games
Dragon KnightLarl
Dragon Knight
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightzai
49% · 180 games51% · 388 games
BeastmasterCollapse
Beastmaster
Undying
UndyingBoxi
48% · 309 games53% · 421 game
MiranaMira
Mirana
Enchantress
EnchantressiNSaNiA
48% · 288 games55% · 269 games
DisruptorMiposhka
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2