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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
nounsloss 1:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 17 games
65%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 17 games
47%
Tusk
Tusk
Gunnar · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tiny
Lelis · 11 games
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Lelis · 8 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
Moo · 7 games
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Gunnar · 7 games
86%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Moo · 7 games
57%

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Q · 30 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 24 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 23 games
78%
Rubick
Rubick
Q · 19 games
58%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 18 games
78%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 17 games
71%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 16 games
75%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Oli · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
982 picks · 664 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
660 picks · 480 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
592 picks · 941 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
559 picks · 439 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
525 picks · 522 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
522 picks · 349 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
510 picks · 1117 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
481 picks · 358 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:23
nouns 47%Talon Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 18:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingGunnar
57% · 177 games42% · 128 games
ZeusMikoto
Zeus
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerYamSun
35% · 101 game50% · 152 games
TimbersawJabz
Timbersaw
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderMoo
37% · 18 games54% · 34 games
Anti-Mage23savage
Anti-Mage
Marci
MarciLelis
59% · 238 games52% · 200 games
ClockwerkQ
Clockwerk
Io
IoHusky
58% · 91 game46% · 111 games
SilencerOli
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed46:23
nouns 46%Talon Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by nouns in 1:15:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYamSun
49% · 44 games47% · 33 games
Anti-Mage23savage
Anti-Mage
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterMoo
51% · 10 games47% · 81 game
ZeusMikoto
Zeus
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLelis
45% · 239 games44% · 47 games
PugnaJabz
Pugna
Riki
RikiGunnar
56% · 84 games50% · 298 games
TinyQ
Tiny
Io
IoHusky
62% · 115 games46% · 33 games
LichOli
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2