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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Ravensloss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Lavawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ravens

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Cara · 13 games
46%
Rubick
Rubick
d1smar · 13 games
15%
Snapfire
Snapfire
d1smar · 8 games
38%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
43%
Tusk
Tusk
PiPi · 7 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Benjaz · 6 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
Demon · 6 games
33%

Lava

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
JimmyCoff666 · 9 games
67%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 8 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
JimmyCoff666 · 7 games
57%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
payk · 4 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 3 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
0%
Enchantress
Enchantress
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
50%
Silencer
Silencer
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
982 picks · 665 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
661 picks · 478 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
590 picks · 941 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
558 picks · 439 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
527 picks · 522 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
522 picks · 349 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
510 picks · 1115 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
481 picks · 357 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 43%
Hero pool strength58% Lava
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Ravens
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed56:34
Ravens 48%Lava 52%
The model gave 52% on Lava — the game was taken by Ravens in 1:01:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightBenjaz
44% · 144 games57% · 102 games
Monkey Kingpayk
Monkey King
Riki
RikiTaO
54% · 88 games55% · 62 games
Visagedrakeel
Visage
Techies
Techiesd1smar
39% · 72 games49% · 295 games
RubickJimmyCoff666
Rubick
Silencer
SilencerCara
47% · 155 games
Game 2prediction correct21:40
Ravens 47%Lava 53%
The model gave 53% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 30:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetBenjaz
41% · 111 games53% · 144 games
Ursapayk
Ursa
Puck
PuckTaO
41% · 120 games63% · 107 games
Visagedrakeel
Visage
Silencer
SilencerCara
48% · 79 games56% · 229 games
DisruptorJimmyCoff666
Disruptor
Tusk
Tuskd1smar
42% · 170 games
Game 3prediction correct7:34
Ravens 49%Lava 51%
The model gave 51% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 33:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierTaO
52% · 163 games52% · 314 games
Nature's Prophetpayk
Nature's Prophet
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBenjaz
49% · 163 games47% · 77 games
Underlorddrakeel
Underlord
Snapfire
Snapfired1smar
51% · 198 games50% · 234 games
DawnbreakerJimmyCoff666
Dawnbreaker
Disruptor
DisruptorCara
49% · 101 game
Model check result
Model favoriteRavens · 50%
Series resultLava 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3