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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 24 games
75%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 22 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 20 games
75%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 19 games
84%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 17 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 14 games
79%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
SabeRLight- · 13 games
62%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Abed · 13 games
62%

Execration

Visage
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 27 games
59%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 22 games
73%
Tiny
Tiny
Shanks · 20 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 18 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 16 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
54%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Tino- · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
978 picks · 663 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
661 picks · 476 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
588 picks · 940 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
557 picks · 439 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
527 picks · 522 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
521 picks · 349 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
508 picks · 1115 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
478 picks · 354 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 43%
Hero pool strength56% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:18
Shopify Rebellion 63%Execration 37%
The model gave 63% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 30:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinArteezy
35% · 61 game50% · 65 games
PudgePalos
Pudge
Lycan
LycanSabeRLight-
55% · 108 games51% · 153 games
Nature's ProphetTino-
Nature's Prophet
Undying
UndyingFly
49% · 271 game56% · 239 games
PangolierBob
Pangolier
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
46% · 216 games55% · 199 games
MarciShanks
Marci
Game 2prediction correct43:16
Shopify Rebellion 63%Execration 37%
The model gave 63% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 35:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightArteezy
50% · 193 games55% · 74 games
Night StalkerPalos
Night Stalker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
51% · 274 games56% · 265 games
PuckBob
Puck
Jakiro
JakiroFly
44% · 80 games50% · 110 games
TidehunterTino-
Tidehunter
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCr1t-
45% · 278 games50% · 376 games
RubickShanks
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 73%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2