DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 31 game
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 23 games
Doomsignature
33 · 22 games
Tinysignature
Saksa · 21 game
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 19 games
Naga Sirensignature
Skiter · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 17 games
Talon Esports
Tusk
Q · 29 games
Tinysignature
Q · 23 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 22 games
Rubick
Q · 19 games
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 17 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 17 games
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 15 games
Undyingoften banned
Oli · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
974 picks · 663 bans
Tiny
659 picks · 474 bans
Nature's Prophet
584 picks · 937 bans
Tusk
555 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
527 picks · 523 bans
Snapfire
522 picks · 347 bans
Death Prophet
505 picks · 1113 bans
Clockwerk
477 picks · 350 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 62%
Hero pool strength50% Talon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total52% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed47:35
Tundra Esports 49%Talon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 1:02:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightSkiter
Templar Assassin23savage
Tidehunter33
Nature's ProphetJabz
PangolierNine
BatriderMikoto
EnchantressSneyking
TuskQ
TechiesSaksa
PhoenixOli
Game 2prediction correct5:31
Tundra Esports 49%Talon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 30:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonSkiter
Morphling23savage
Queen of PainNine
PuckMikoto
Beastmaster33
BatriderJabz
MiranaSaksa
TinyQ
RubickSneyking
EnchantressOli
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2