DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:1series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TSMloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 24 games
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 18 games
Snapfire
BoBoKa · 16 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 15 games
Beastmastersignature
Xxs · 14 games
Disruptor
Fantasy · 14 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xxs · 14 games
Puckoften banned
Xwy · 14 games
TSM
Rubicksignature
Ari · 19 games
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 12 games
Leshracoften banned
bryle- · 11 games
Lycansignature
kasane · 11 games
Undyingoften banned
Whitemon · 11 games
Rikioften banned
Ari · 10 games
Enigmaoften banned
kasane · 9 games
Marcioften banned
Timado · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
969 picks · 662 bans
Tiny
658 picks · 471 bans
Nature's Prophet
581 picks · 938 bans
Tusk
556 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
527 picks · 525 bans
Snapfire
522 picks · 347 bans
Death Prophet
505 picks · 1108 bans
Clockwerk
476 picks · 348 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% TSM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:5
Team Aster 50%TSM 50%
The model gave 50% on TSM — the game was taken by Team Aster in 30:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingMonet
Anti-MageTimado
Shadow FiendXwy
Pangolierbryle-
TimbersawXxs
Broodmotherkasane
RikiBoBoKa
HoodwinkAri
DisruptorFantasy
JakiroWhitemon
Game 2prediction correct15:22
Team Aster 48%TSM 52%
The model gave 52% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 37:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinMonet
MarciTimado
Spirit BreakerXxs
Beastmasterkasane
Storm SpiritXwy
Invokerbryle-
Monkey KingBoBoKa
RubickAri
JakiroFantasy
SilencerWhitemon
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2