Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Big Brainwin 2:0series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Holy Grailloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Big Brain
Treant Protector
Tz. · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Molasses · 6 games
Tusk
marblue · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Molasses · 5 games
Disruptor
Tz. · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Molasses · 5 games
Mirana
marblue · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
blessing · 5 games
Holy Grail
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
Snapfire
omoxiloyi · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
Rubick
omoxiloyi · 3 games
Tusk
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
Earth Spirit
omoxiloyi · 2 games
Underlord
Tzy · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
969 picks · 665 bans
Tiny
659 picks · 469 bans
Nature's Prophet
581 picks · 938 bans
Tusk
555 picks · 440 bans
Treant Protector
529 picks · 527 bans
Snapfire
521 picks · 347 bans
Death Prophet
505 picks · 1104 bans
Clockwerk
474 picks · 349 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Holy Grail
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Holy Grail
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:17
Big Brain 36%Holy Grail 64%
The model gave 64% on Holy Grail — the game was taken by Big Brain in 48:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkManic
Shadow FiendButterflyEffect
TimbersawMolasses
Queen of PainTzy
Primal BeastEcho
Clockwerkomoxiloyi
SnapfireTz.
Tuskmarblue
Game 2prediction missed41:28
Big Brain 37%Holy Grail 63%
The model gave 63% on Holy Grail — the game was taken by Big Brain in 41:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerManic
Shadow FiendButterflyEffect
SnapfireMolasses
DoomTzy
MarsEcho
Jakiroomoxiloyi
Disruptormarblue
TuskTz.
Model check result
Model favoriteHoly Grail · 72%
Series resultBig Brain 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2