Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutloss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LBLucky Birdwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 8 games
Disruptor
empyrean5 · 8 games
Hoodwink
bgod · 8 games
Silencersignature
empyrean5 · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Chives · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
high_shaggy · 5 games
Rubick
Save · 5 games
Lucky Bird
Tiny
BlackSoul · 6 games
Treant Protector
Yadomi · 6 games
Hoodwink
Wij · 5 games
Ursaoften banned
Rises · 5 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 4 games
Linaoften banned
Rises · 4 games
Snapfire
Yadomi · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
Yadomi · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
969 picks · 664 bans
Tiny
659 picks · 469 bans
Nature's Prophet
581 picks · 937 bans
Tusk
555 picks · 440 bans
Treant Protector
528 picks · 527 bans
Snapfire
520 picks · 347 bans
Death Prophet
505 picks · 1102 bans
Clockwerk
473 picks · 349 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 20%
Hero pool strength61% The Cut
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total58% Lucky Bird
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct54:45
The Cut 48%Lucky Bird 52%
The model gave 52% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 1:11:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirithigh_shaggy
Troll WarlordRises
UrsaScourge McDuck
EarthshakerBlackSoul
Snapfirebgod
Phoenixempyrean5
MarciITALIANO GANGSTA
Treant ProtectorJubei
Game 2prediction correct34:19
The Cut 47%Lucky Bird 53%
The model gave 53% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 37:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackScourge McDuck
Troll WarlordRises
Ember Spirithigh_shaggy
Dragon KnightBlackSoul
AxeITALIANO GANGSTA
Undyingempyrean5
Skywrath Magebgod
ClockwerkJubei
Model check result
Model favoriteLucky Bird · 58%
Series resultLucky Bird 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2