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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Another NA Teamloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CDUB Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Another NA Team

Tusk
Tusk
The Warden · 9 games
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
USH · 8 games
63%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
RRL · 7 games
43%
Silencer
Silencer
FeelinG · 7 games
43%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
FeelinG · 6 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
The Warden · 5 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
USH · 4 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
USH · 3 games
33%

CDUB Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
AfrOmoush · 12 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
islA · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Sanctified · 7 games
29%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Double King · 6 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Double King · 6 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mark · 5 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Sanctified · 5 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
Sanctified · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
969 picks · 665 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
660 picks · 468 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
582 picks · 937 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
554 picks · 440 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
528 picks · 528 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
520 picks · 347 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
505 picks · 1099 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
472 picks · 352 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 42%
Hero pool strength53% CDUB Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% CDUB Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:25
Another NA Team 48%CDUB Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 24:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeArgius
50% · 168 games53% · 307 games
BeastmasterislA
Beastmaster
Leshrac
LeshracRRL
46% · 215 games47% · 45 games
Wraith KingDouble King
Wraith King
Mars
MarsUSH
44% · 198 games52% · 148 games
Keeper of the LightMark
Keeper of the Light
Tusk
TuskThe Warden
53% · 346 games55% · 268 games
DisruptorSanctified
Disruptor
Silencer
SilencerFeelinG
43% · 145 games54% · 304 games
UndyingDuster
Undying
Game 2prediction correct19:37
Another NA Team 47%CDUB Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 38:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerArgius
41% · 102 games39% · 58 games
Wraith KingDouble King
Wraith King
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritRRL
54% · 152 games46% · 223 games
DoomislA
Doom
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerUSH
50% · 97 games54% · 132 games
ZeusMark
Zeus
Rubick
RubickThe Warden
55% · 444 games49% · 447 games
TuskSanctified
Tusk
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFeelinG
51% · 336 games54% · 271 game
EnchantressDuster
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteCDUB Esports · 53%
Series resultCDUB Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2