DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
nounsloss 0:2series probability
8%92%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 16 games
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 15 games
Tiny
Lelis · 11 games
Tusksignature
Gunnar · 11 games
Doomsignature
Moo · 7 games
Leshracsignature
Gunnar · 7 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Moo · 7 games
Snapfire
Lelis · 7 games
Team Liquid
Tusksignature
Boxi · 33 games
Rubicksignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
Tiny
Boxi · 18 games
Enigmasignature
zai · 17 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 17 games
Snapfiresignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
Leshracsignature
miCKe · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
965 picks · 663 bans
Tiny
659 picks · 465 bans
Nature's Prophet
582 picks · 933 bans
Tusk
551 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
528 picks · 528 bans
Snapfire
518 picks · 344 bans
Death Prophet
503 picks · 1096 bans
Clockwerk
472 picks · 351 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 76%
Hero pool strength59% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:31
nouns 23%Team Liquid 77%
The model gave 77% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 26:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone DruidGunnar
Necrophoszai
RikiYamSun
Shadow FiendNisha
EarthshakerMoo
DoommiCKe
RubickLelis
EnchantressiNSaNiA
UndyingHusky
DisruptorBoxi
Game 2prediction correct22:37
nouns 22%Team Liquid 78%
The model gave 78% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 29:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorYamSun
Templar AssassinmiCKe
Primal BeastMoo
Ember SpiritNisha
SnapfireGunnar
Necrophoszai
TuskLelis
RubickBoxi
IoHusky
DisruptoriNSaNiA
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 92%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2