DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 1:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Team Spirit
Rubicksignature
Mira · 42 games
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 28 games
Tinysignature
Mira · 24 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 22 games
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 21 game
Clockwerk
Mira · 19 games
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 18 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
965 picks · 663 bans
Tiny
659 picks · 465 bans
Nature's Prophet
582 picks · 933 bans
Tusk
551 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
528 picks · 528 bans
Snapfire
518 picks · 344 bans
Death Prophet
503 picks · 1096 bans
Clockwerk
472 picks · 351 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 65%
Hero pool strength60% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:43
beastcoast 44%Team Spirit 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 27:00.
Game 2prediction correct39:25
beastcoast 44%Team Spirit 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 56%
Accuracy by game2 of 2