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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
cybercatswin 2:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Sigma.YNTloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

cybercats

Tiny
Tiny
Chira JUNIOR · 13 games
54%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
DkFogas · 10 games
30%
Rubick
Rubick
jesv · 10 games
40%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
forcemajor · 10 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
forcemajor · 9 games
44%
Disruptor
Disruptor
forcemajor · 8 games
38%
Doom
Doomoften banned
zenica · 8 games
38%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Alberkaaa · 8 games
50%

Sigma.YNT

Tiny
Tiny
queezy · 26 games
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
VANSKOR · 17 games
47%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 16 games
38%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
v1olent- · 13 games
54%
Doom
Doomsignature
kur0patbI4 · 12 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
foryou · 12 games
58%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
kur0patbI4 · 10 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
963 picks · 663 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
660 picks · 465 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
583 picks · 930 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
551 picks · 439 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
528 picks · 528 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
518 picks · 344 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
502 picks · 1095 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
471 picks · 349 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% Sigma.YNT
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total54% Sigma.YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:28
cybercats 46%Sigma.YNT 54%
The model gave 54% on Sigma.YNT — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT in 46:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerAlberkaaa
45% · 167 games40% · 56 games
Phantom LancerDarkLord^
Phantom Lancer
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
53% · 220 games53% · 392 games
Beastmasterkur0patbI4
Beastmaster
Death Prophet
Death ProphetDkFogas
41% · 318 games50% · 470 games
Pangolierforyou
Pangolier
Rubick
Rubickjesv
45% · 495 games54% · 245 games
Monkey Kingqueezy
Monkey King
Undying
Undyingforcemajor
53% · 338 games63% · 375 games
DisruptorVANSKOR
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed36:19
cybercats 47%Sigma.YNT 53%
The model gave 53% on Sigma.YNT — the game was taken by cybercats in 47:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAlberkaaa
47% · 127 games45% · 55 games
AbaddonDarkLord^
Abaddon
Zeus
ZeusChira JUNIOR
45% · 81 game43% · 16 games
Tinkerforyou
Tinker
Night Stalker
Night StalkerDkFogas
55% · 49 games53% · 359 games
Beastmasterkur0patbI4
Beastmaster
Snapfire
Snapfirejesv
46% · 215 games51% · 69 games
Svenqueezy
Sven
Clockwerk
Clockwerkforcemajor
59% · 219 games51% · 192 games
SilencerVANSKOR
Silencer
Game 3prediction missed29:10
cybercats 46%Sigma.YNT 54%
The model gave 54% on Sigma.YNT — the game was taken by cybercats in 24:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageAlberkaaa
46% · 43 games56% · 157 games
Monkey KingDarkLord^
Monkey King
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDkFogas
50% · 220 games51% · 151 game
Dragon Knightkur0patbI4
Dragon Knight
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerChira JUNIOR
54% · 29 games52% · 104 games
Rikiforyou
Riki
Rubick
Rubickjesv
42% · 406 games58% · 84 games
Skywrath Magequeezy
Skywrath Mage
Lich
Lichforcemajor
38% · 62 games57% · 264 games
DisruptorVANSKOR
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteSigma.YNT · 54%
Series resultcybercats 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3