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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
MoneyMakersloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
UALEIKUMNIHAOwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MoneyMakers

Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 14 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Bb3px · 9 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bignum · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 7 games
43%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Bb3px · 6 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenix
CeMaTheSlayeR · 6 games
33%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Egor · 6 games
83%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Egor · 5 games
60%

UALEIKUMNIHAO

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Shergarat · 7 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Palantimos · 7 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Mary_y · 5 games
60%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
b1kA · 5 games
80%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Mary_y · 5 games
60%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
hAze · 4 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Palantimos · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
958 picks · 660 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
659 picks · 467 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
577 picks · 927 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
550 picks · 440 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
527 picks · 528 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
518 picks · 343 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
497 picks · 1092 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
466 picks · 347 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 71%
Hero pool strength54% UALEIKUMNIHAO
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% UALEIKUMNIHAO
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:41
MoneyMakers 44%UALEIKUMNIHAO 56%
The model gave 56% on UALEIKUMNIHAO — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 52:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetLukas
49% · 380 games48% · 71 game
AbaddonPalantimos
Abaddon
Leshrac
LeshracEgor
57% · 292 games47% · 391 game
PangolierhAze
Pangolier
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightBb3px
49% · 244 games53% · 260 games
EnigmaShergarat
Enigma
Silencer
SilencerBignum
43% · 275 games46% · 580 games
RubickMary_y
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCeMaTheSlayeR
53% · 440 games55% · 329 games
Treant Protectorb1kA
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed23:7
MoneyMakers 43%UALEIKUMNIHAO 57%
The model gave 57% on UALEIKUMNIHAO — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 20:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetLukas
50% · 410 games50% · 196 games
DoomPalantimos
Doom
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightEgor
47% · 213 games48% · 202 games
BatriderhAze
Batrider
Visage
VisageBb3px
56% · 174 games48% · 368 games
Death ProphetShergarat
Death Prophet
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageBignum
41% · 127 games52% · 298 games
MiranaMary_y
Mirana
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCeMaTheSlayeR
53% · 413 games55% · 273 games
Treant Protectorb1kA
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct9:27
MoneyMakers 45%UALEIKUMNIHAO 55%
The model gave 55% on UALEIKUMNIHAO — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 30:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetBb3px
53% · 437 games54% · 130 games
Naga SirenPalantimos
Naga Siren
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageLukas
58% · 44 games49% · 333 games
Death ProphethAze
Death Prophet
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEgor
49% · 354 games47% · 258 games
Primal BeastShergarat
Primal Beast
Lich
LichCeMaTheSlayeR
43% · 90 games48% · 124 games
Phoenixb1kA
Phoenix
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBignum
54% · 418 games49% · 498 games
RubickMary_y
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteUALEIKUMNIHAO · 63%
Series resultUALEIKUMNIHAO 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3