DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:1
beastcoastloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 29 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 21 game
Doomsignature
33 · 21 game
Tinysignature
Saksa · 21 game
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 19 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 17 games
Tusk
Nine · 17 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
958 picks · 653 bans
Tiny
657 picks · 463 bans
Nature's Prophet
576 picks · 924 bans
Tusk
549 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
527 picks · 528 bans
Snapfire
517 picks · 340 bans
Death Prophet
495 picks · 1090 bans
Clockwerk
465 picks · 346 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 62%
Hero pool strength60% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:36
Tundra Esports 54%beastcoast 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by beastcoast in 34:02.
Game 2prediction correct34:18
Tundra Esports 54%beastcoast 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 43:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2