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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 42 games
69%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 28 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 24 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 22 games
82%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 21 game
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Mira · 19 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 18 games
78%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
78%

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusksignature
Q · 28 games
61%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 21 game
86%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 21 game
81%
Rubick
Rubick
Q · 19 games
58%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 17 games
71%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 17 games
82%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Oli · 15 games
53%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
23savage · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
958 picks · 653 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
657 picks · 463 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
576 picks · 924 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
549 picks · 439 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
527 picks · 528 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
517 picks · 340 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
495 picks · 1090 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
465 picks · 346 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 66%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:45
Team Spirit 53%Talon Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 42:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYatoro
51% · 207 games44% · 131 game
Shadow Fiend23savage
Shadow Fiend
Doom
DoomCollapse
48% · 337 games52% · 207 games
Nature's ProphetJabz
Nature's Prophet
Riki
RikiLarl
55% · 144 games49% · 283 games
Ember SpiritMikoto
Ember Spirit
Mirana
MiranaMira
56% · 481 game50% · 452 games
TinyQ
Tiny
Lich
LichMiposhka
40% · 112 games53% · 208 games
EnchantressOli
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct54:22
Team Spirit 52%Talon Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 36:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerYatoro
47% · 151 game56% · 53 games
Spectre23savage
Spectre
Doom
DoomCollapse
47% · 208 games49% · 196 games
Dragon KnightMikoto
Dragon Knight
Puck
PuckLarl
51% · 293 games52% · 287 games
Death ProphetJabz
Death Prophet
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
43% · 79 games51% · 267 games
ClockwerkQ
Clockwerk
Disruptor
DisruptorMiposhka
55% · 195 games49% · 123 games
PhoenixOli
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 55%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2