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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
No Sorryloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Treant Protector
Treant Protector
so bad · 13 games
38%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Hellscream · 11 games
64%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Malr1ne · 11 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 10 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Corrupted · 9 games
78%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Hellscream · 9 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Malr1ne · 8 games
25%
Silencer
Silencersignature
so bad · 8 games
75%

No Sorry

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
BLACKARXANGEL · 16 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
BLACKARXANGEL · 13 games
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Dodren · 13 games
38%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Dinozavrik · 13 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 11 games
45%
Rubick
Rubick
ArrOw · 9 games
44%
Tusk
Tusk
Dodren · 9 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Blizzy · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
953 picks · 653 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
657 picks · 465 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
573 picks · 922 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
550 picks · 439 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
531 picks · 529 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
516 picks · 340 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
494 picks · 1084 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
464 picks · 345 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total60% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:38
Nemiga Gaming 57%No Sorry 43%
The model gave 57% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by No Sorry in 41:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
Slarkv1olent-
49% · 122 games33% · 64 games
AbaddonDinozavrik
Abaddon
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
58% · 296 games52% · 218 games
BatriderDodren
Batrider
Axe
AxeCorrupted
46% · 13 games49% · 226 games
Primal BeastDominic
Primal Beast
Rubick
Rubickso bad
48% · 377 games47% · 86 games
Techiesy0nd
Techies
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageHellscream
59% · 83 games50% · 297 games
UndyingBLACKARXANGEL
Undying
Game 2prediction correct40:29
Nemiga Gaming 58%No Sorry 42%
The model gave 58% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 47:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerCorrupted
55% · 46 games34% · 55 games
AbaddonDinozavrik
Abaddon
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
60% · 246 games51% · 200 games
BatriderDodren
Batrider
Slark
Slarkv1olent-
50% · 113 games54% · 188 games
BroodmotherDominic
Broodmother
Monkey King
Monkey KingHellscream
51% · 116 games48% · 59 games
Techiesy0nd
Techies
Disruptor
Disruptorso bad
53% · 161 game40% · 180 games
Crystal MaidenBLACKARXANGEL
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct29:4
Nemiga Gaming 55%No Sorry 45%
The model gave 55% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 17:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladev1olent-
53% · 146 games54% · 381 game
PuckDodren
Puck
Snapfire
SnapfireCorrupted
41% · 279 games60% · 66 games
Anti-MageDinozavrik
Anti-Mage
Tiny
TinyMalr1ne
46% · 459 games53% · 451 game
BeastmasterDominic
Beastmaster
Enchantress
Enchantressso bad
41% · 228 games48% · 273 games
Crystal MaidenBLACKARXANGEL
Crystal Maiden
Monkey King
Monkey KingHellscream
54% · 160 games53% · 101 game
Techiesy0nd
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 60%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3